Report regarding the number of deaths due to illnesses in "Fukushima children" Changes since the Fukushima accident based on the government’s vital statistics data.

By Seiichi Nakate,  Fukushima Network for Saving Children from Radiation

http://kodomofukushima.net/?page_id=257

May 14, 2012

It has been over one year since the Fukushima nuclear accident.  However, the government has failed to make efforts to investigate the health effects from the radiation contamination.  The government has excluded Fukushima prefecture from the Patient Survey (*1), and the prefecture’s “Health Management Survey” considers pediatric thyroid cancer as the only health risk possible.  It seems that, without taking adequate measures to prevent damages from occurring, they are spreading a “radiation-is-safe myth” stating “this amount of radiation is not harmful” and trying to bring the children back to “everyday life” little by little.

On the other hand, we get information on the Internet such as “sudden deaths in high school students,” “abnormality such as thyroid cysts,” and “an increase in deaths in Fukushima,” making us worry if the health damages are already occurring.

This report contains changes in the number of deaths due to illnesses in Fukushima children, based on the vital statistics collected and made public by the government’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.  Vital statistics are the collection of births and deaths reported to local governments, and monthly data is available up to November, 2011.  It was determined that this data was reliable even after the earthquake/tsunami disaster and the nuclear accident,with the exception of some specific data (*2).

(*1) Patient Survey
It is a morbidity-related survey of patients in medical institutions in order  to obtain basic information for medical care administration, carried out nationwide, simultaneously, every three years.  Last year (2011) was the survey year, and if Fukushima prefecture hadn’t been excluded, it might have found changes from three years ago or any unusual phenomena  not seen in other prefectures.
(*2) some specific data
Part of data relating to accidental deaths and fetuses, newborns and infants.

The graphs shown below were created from the Fukushima prefecture data in the archival list of “the number of deaths by sex, age (in five-year age groups), and a simple classification of causes of deaths for each prefecture ( with 20 largest cities regrouped).”   This was found in the “monthly report” for 2010 and 2011, obtained from “Government statistics general site: vital statistics (http://www.e-stat.go.jp/SG1/estat/NewList.do?tid=000001028897).”   Data from other prefectures and “annual” data prior to 2010 were also referred to when needed for consideration and comparison.


Comparison of the total number of pediatric deaths due to illnesses

This graph depicts the total number of pediatric deaths (ages 1 to 19) due to illnesses in March through November, 2011, compared to the same time period in 2010.

It has increased by a factor of 1.5 times, but pediatric deaths due to illnesses come in small numbers to begin with, so the absolute number is too small to determine if this is an “unusual phenomenon.”  Similar changes can be seen considerably in past statistics or other prefectures.

Total number of pediatric deaths (ages 1 to 19) due to illnesses in Fukushima,
from March through November of 2010 (blue)  vs. 2011 (pink)

(Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Vital Statistics)

Thus the following graph was created to see the month-to-month changes.

Dynamic changes in the number of deaths due to illnesses

Month-to-month changes in the number of pediatric deaths (ages 1 to 19) in Fukushima from March through November of 2010 (blue) and 2011 (pink)

*The vertical bar graph indicates the number of death for the specific month in blue for 2010 and pink for 2011.
*The line graph indicates the cumulative number of death in blue for 2010 and pink for 2011.
(Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Vital Statistics)

There is a big change in the number of deaths due to illnesses after July.

Ordinarily, there are more deaths due to illnesses in winter and spring; summer and fall tend to see fewer deaths nationwide both for adults and children.

However, in 2011 the number of deaths due to illnesses was large in summer and fall, and there is an almost linear increase in the cumulative number of deaths.

If this tendency were to continue in 2012, the number of pediatric deaths due to illnesses would increase at a fast enough pace to be “statistically significant.”  This type of phenomenon rarely happens in the whole country.  It is not something that is happening in Miyagi or Iwate prefectures.

I cannot help but suspect a possibility that abnormal phenomena have been happening to the health of  Fukushima children since last summer.


The number of deaths due to illnesses by the specific cause of deaths

The number of pediatric deaths (ages 1 to 19) due to illnesses classified by the specific cause of deaths in Fukushima from March through November of 2010 (blue) and 2011 (pink)

From left to right: cancer and leukemia
cardiovascular diseases
infectious diseases
pneumonia
miscellaneous
(Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Vital Statistics)

This graph depicts the number of pediatric deaths classified by the specific cause of deaths.

The number of deaths due to “cardiovascular diseases” has doubled.  (This number includes cardiovascular deaths of children with congenital heart abnormalities.)  This has not been seen in other prefectures which suffered damages from the earthquake/tsunami disaster.  There are also increases in infectious diseases, cancer and leukemia, and pneumonia.

This graph may be no more than just a reference, but I decided to include it in this report along with the second graph showing the increase in the number of deaths since last summer.

There is no doubt that the number of pediatric deaths due to illnesses has increased since last summer.  It was omitted from this report, but there is data available that shows that the increase in the number of deaths was the greatest in late teens.  If this abnormal phenomenon continues on and the causality with radiation contamination were ever to be proven, the lost lives would not come back.

In health damage due to any type of pollution, there are many children who have illnesses or are not feeling well, besides those who died.  I think it is the responsibility of adults to act on preventing even a little bit of radiation damage.  We need to consider convalescence, relocation, protective measures and anything that can be possibly helpful.  In addition, we need to demand the early enforcement of “the alternative to the national Patient Survey” which has been promised by the government.